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Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — Super League 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
6/29/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Wuhua Hengpi Football Town

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Meizhou Kejia46%
×Draw23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.77
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.41

Meizhou Kejia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 68 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.48
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.25

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.56
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.06

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
69%
Meizhou Kejia or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
77%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
54%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
83%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
53%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
26%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
76%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
41%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
60%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.56 · 62 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.48 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.77

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
46%
level
23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
31%

Meizhou Kejia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Meizhou Kejia beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-1 in Super League on June 29, 2022.

The match was played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town in Dongguan.