Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
7/2/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Cangzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.35%
×Draw25%
Hangzhou Greentown40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.36
Hangzhou Greentown
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 73 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Hangzhou Greentown
1.60

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Hangzhou Greentown
1.63

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
60%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Hangzhou Greentown
75%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
65%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
16%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
74%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
39%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
16%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
77%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
43%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
47%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.60 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
35%
level
25%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
40%

Hangzhou Greentown at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2–1 Hangzhou Greentown

Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 in Super League on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Cangzhou Stadium in Cangzhou.