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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
7/30/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.41%
×Draw26%
Chongqing Lifan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.44
Chongqing Lifan
1.28

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 50 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
66%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Chongqing Lifan
74%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
59%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
19%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
76%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
42%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
18%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
72%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
37%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
55%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
41%
level
26%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
34%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan

Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan drew 1-1 in Super League on July 30, 2021.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Canton.