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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
5/19/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Cangzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.42%
×Draw25%
Changchun Yatai33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.50
Changchun Yatai
1.31

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 88 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Changchun Yatai
1.30

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Changchun Yatai
1.90

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
67%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Changchun Yatai
75%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
58%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
20%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
78%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
44%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
19%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
73%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
38%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
56%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

Changchun Yatai attack 1.30 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
42%
level
25%
Changchun Yatai scores more
33%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2–4 Changchun Yatai

Changchun Yatai beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-2 in Super League on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Cangzhou Stadium in Cangzhou.