Shifnal Town FC 1–3 Avro: Result & Stats

Shifnal Town FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Avro

4/4/2026

League #54

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shifnal Town FC22%

×Draw24%

Avro54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shifnal Town FCExpected goals in this matchAvro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.68

Shifnal Town FC

0.97

Avro

1.68

Avro creates 73% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

1.69

1.67

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Shifnal Town FC

1.00

Avro

1.69

allows per match

Shifnal Town FC

1.67

Avro

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shifnal Town FC+0.00on par

Avro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shifnal Town FC ↓

Avro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shifnal Town FC or draw

46%

Shifnal Town FC or Avro

76%

Draw or Avro

78%

Winning margin

Shifnal Town FC wins by 2+

8%

Avro wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Shifnal Town FC 1+ goals

62%

Shifnal Town FC 2+ goals

25%

Shifnal Town FC 3+ goals

7%

Avro 1+ goals

81%

Avro 2+ goals

50%

Avro 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Shifnal Town FC (draw refunded)

29%

Avro (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shifnal Town FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Avro away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shifnal Town FC attack 1.00 + Avro defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Avro attack 1.69 + Shifnal Town FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shifnal Town FC scores more

22%

level

24%

Avro scores more

54%

Avro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Avro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff