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Shevardeni 1906 vs Gareji — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gareji
Gareji
5/15/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 13Tsentraluri Stadioni Kaspi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Shevardeni 190639%
×Draw24%
Gareji37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shevardeni 1906
1.57
Gareji
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 75 away

creates per match

Shevardeni 1906
1.69
Gareji
1.40

allows per match

Shevardeni 1906
1.63
Gareji
1.45

finishing

Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par
Gareji+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shevardeni 1906 ↓

Gareji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shevardeni 1906 or draw
63%
Shevardeni 1906 or Gareji
76%
Draw or Gareji
61%

Winning margin

Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
19%
Gareji wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
79%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
46%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
21%
Gareji 1+ goals
78%
Gareji 2+ goals
44%
Gareji 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
52%
Gareji (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shevardeni 1906 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Gareji away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.69 + Gareji defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Gareji attack 1.40 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shevardeni 1906 scores more
39%
level
24%
Gareji scores more
37%

Shevardeni 1906 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shevardeni 1906 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Shevardeni 1906 1–0 Gareji

Shevardeni 1906 beat Gareji 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni Kaspi in Kaspi.