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Gareji vs Shevardeni 1906 — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gareji
Gareji
CANC
10:00
Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
10/30/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Gareji60%
×Draw22%
Shevardeni 190619%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gareji
1.96
Shevardeni 1906
0.99

Gareji creates 98% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 48 away

creates per match

Gareji
2.20
Shevardeni 1906
1.13

allows per match

Gareji
0.86
Shevardeni 1906
1.71

finishing

Gareji+0.00on par
Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gareji ↓

Shevardeni 1906 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gareji or draw
81%
Gareji or Shevardeni 1906
78%
Draw or Shevardeni 1906
40%

Winning margin

Gareji wins by 2+
36%
Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gareji 1+ goals
86%
Gareji 2+ goals
58%
Gareji 3+ goals
31%
Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
63%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
26%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gareji (draw refunded)
76%
Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gareji at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Shevardeni 1906 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gareji attack 2.20 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.13 + Gareji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gareji scores more
60%
level
22%
Shevardeni 1906 scores more
19%

Gareji at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gareji host Shevardeni 1906

October 30, 2022: Gareji take on Shevardeni 1906 in Erovnuli Liga 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.