Sheriff U19 0–5 Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Sheriff U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

V. Pohorilyi 90+3' (pen)

A. Hlushchenko 68' (pen)

D. Honcharuk 64'

K. Siheiev 56'

A. Veklenko 36'

9/15/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Malaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sheriff U1948%

×Draw24%

Shakhtar Donetsk U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheriff U19Expected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.28

Sheriff U19

1.72

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.28

Sheriff U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

1.63

creates per match

0.94

1.63

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Sheriff U19

1.63

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

0.94

allows per match

Sheriff U19

1.63

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheriff U19+0.00on par

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff U19 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sheriff U19 or draw

71%

Sheriff U19 or Shakhtar Donetsk U19

76%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk U19

52%

Winning margin

Sheriff U19 wins by 2+

25%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sheriff U19 1+ goals

82%

Sheriff U19 2+ goals

51%

Sheriff U19 3+ goals

25%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals

72%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals

37%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheriff U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff U19 attack 1.63 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 0.94 + Sheriff U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sheriff U19 scores more

48%

level

24%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more

29%

Sheriff U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sheriff U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

I. Losenko

29'

D. Ichim

34'

A. Buleza

36'

A. Veklenko↳ D. Kapinus

53'

V. Costin

56'

R. Scurtul

56'

K. Siheiev↳ I. Losenko

62'

A. Veklenko

62'

N. Covalschi← P. Cucereavenco

64'

D. Honcharuk↳ I. Losenko

66'

O. Rosputko← I. Losenko

67'

O. Pushkarov← A. Veklenko

68'

R. Dumenco

68'

A. HlushchenkoPenalty

72'

A. Jaloba← D. Pogreban

73'

N. Spatar← V. Costin

75'

N. Havryliuk← D. Kapinus

78'

V. Pohorilyi← D. Honcharuk

79'

K. Bako← A. Buleza

81'

A. Hatman

83'

V. Coliş← N. Covali

90+3'

V. Colis

90+3'

V. PohorilyiPenalty

Sheriff

Shakhtar

1

Tvardovsk

5

▼

Buleza

3

Kozik

4

Farina

2

A

▼

Kapinus

6

A

▼

Losenko

8

Hulko

7

⚽

Hlushchen

10

⚽

Siheiev

9

⚽

▼

Honcharuk

11

⚽

▼

33

77

35

70

23

24

▼

Costin

55

Forov

18

▼

Covali

98

▼

Cucereave

9

▼

Pogreban

17

Hatman

Manager: A. Corneencov

62'▲N. Covalschi←▼P. Cucereavenco

72'▲A. Jaloba←▼D. Pogreban

73'▲N. Spatar←▼V. Costin

83'▲V. Coliş←▼N. Covali

Sheriff U19 substitutes

11Covalschi14Jaloba16Spatar15Coliş25Filipov3Yaţco1Savocica

Manager: O. Ratulutra

66'▲O. Rosputko←▼I. Losenko

67'▲O. Pushkarov←▼A. Veklenko

75'▲N. Havryliuk←▼D. Kapinus

78'▲V. Pohorilyi←▼D. Honcharuk

79'▲K. Bako←▼A. Buleza

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 substitutes

16Rosputko17Pushkarov13Havryliuk18Pohorilyi15Bako12Kravets14Savchenko