Sheriff Tiraspol 0–2 Real Sociedad: Result & Stats

Sheriff Tiraspol

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad

10/6/2022

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol32%

×Draw32%

Real Sociedad36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheriff TiraspolExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.00

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.92

Real Sociedad

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.09

creates per match

1.08

0.91

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.09

Real Sociedad

1.08

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.91

Real Sociedad

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Real Sociedad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Real Sociedad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw

64%

Sheriff Tiraspol or Real Sociedad

68%

Draw or Real Sociedad

68%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

11%

Real Sociedad wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

60%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

23%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

7%

Real Sociedad 1+ goals

63%

Real Sociedad 2+ goals

26%

Real Sociedad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

47%

Real Sociedad (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Real Sociedad away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.09 + Real Sociedad defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.92

Real Sociedad attack 1.08 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

32%

level

32%

Real Sociedad scores more

36%

Real Sociedad at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Sociedad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff