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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Plzen — UEFA Champions League 2026

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Plzen
Plzen
8/2/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol60%
×Draw22%
Plzen18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.95
Plzen
0.97

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 101% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.36
Plzen
1.08

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.86
Plzen
2.54

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
82%
Sheriff Tiraspol or Plzen
78%
Draw or Plzen
40%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
36%
Plzen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
86%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
58%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
31%
Plzen 1+ goals
62%
Plzen 2+ goals
25%
Plzen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
77%
Plzen (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.36 + Plzen defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.95

Plzen attack 1.08 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
60%
level
22%
Plzen scores more
18%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Plzen

Plzen beat Sheriff Tiraspol 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on August 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Zimbru in Chişinău.