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Sheriff Tiraspol vs FCM Ungheni — Cupa 2020

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspoladvanced
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
11/1/2023CupaCupa · Round of 16Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol74%
×Draw14%
FCM Ungheni12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
3.19
FCM Ungheni
1.28

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 149% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
3.47
FCM Ungheni
2.20

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.35
FCM Ungheni
2.90

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
FCM Ungheni+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

FCM Ungheni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
88%
Sheriff Tiraspol or FCM Ungheni
86%
Draw or FCM Ungheni
26%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
55%
FCM Ungheni wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
96%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
82%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
60%
FCM Ungheni 1+ goals
72%
FCM Ungheni 2+ goals
37%
FCM Ungheni 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
86%
FCM Ungheni (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

FCM Ungheni away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 3.47 + FCM Ungheni defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 3.19

FCM Ungheni attack 2.20 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
74%
level
14%
FCM Ungheni scores more
12%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheriff Tiraspol vs FCM Ungheni

Sheriff Tiraspol beat FCM Ungheni 5-0 in Cupa on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.