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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dinamo Zagreb — UEFA Champions League 2026

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
8/17/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Play-offsBolshaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol41%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Zagreb30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.25
Dinamo Zagreb
1.03

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.36
Dinamo Zagreb
1.20

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.86
Dinamo Zagreb
1.15

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
70%
Sheriff Tiraspol or Dinamo Zagreb
72%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb
59%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
71%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
36%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
28%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
58%
Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.36 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo Zagreb attack 1.20 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
41%
level
28%
Dinamo Zagreb scores more
30%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dinamo Zagreb

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 in UEFA Champions League on August 17, 2021.

The match was played at Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.