Sheriff Tiraspol 2–1 Codru Lozova: Result & Stats

Sheriff Tiraspol

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Codru Lozova

José Jurado 52'

E. Oancea 12'

I. Mamaliga 42'

4/20/2019

Super Liga · Round 6Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Tiraspol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol85%

×Draw11%

Codru Lozova4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheriff TiraspolExpected goals in this matchCodru Lozova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

0.43

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.71

Codru Lozova

0.43

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 530% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 30 away

2.55

creates per match

0.47

0.40

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.55

Codru Lozova

0.47

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.40

Codru Lozova

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Codru Lozova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Codru Lozova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw

96%

Sheriff Tiraspol or Codru Lozova

89%

Draw or Codru Lozova

15%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

64%

Codru Lozova wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

93%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

75%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

50%

Codru Lozova 1+ goals

35%

Codru Lozova 2+ goals

7%

Codru Lozova 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

96%

Codru Lozova (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.40 · 102 matches

Codru Lozova away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.55 + Codru Lozova defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.71

Codru Lozova attack 0.47 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

85%

level

11%

Codru Lozova scores more

4%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

E. Oancea

42'

I. Mamaliga

46'

P. Pedersen← Leandro Ribeiro

52'

José Jurado

63'

N. Trifonov← C. Ursu

66'

G. Ochincă← P. Costin

72'

A. Belousov← Maxim Cojocaru I

82'

S. Nazar← I. Mamaliga

84'

Y. Kendysh← R. Tambe

Sheriff

Codru

1

Ţurcan

5

Rusu

2

▼

Ursu

11

⚽

▼

Mamaliga

30

▼

28

10

73

9

4

99

1

55

90

15

6

98

▼

I

19

Palić

10

⚽

Jurado

32

⚽

Oancea

70

▼

Ribeiro

29

▼

Tambe

Manager: G. Sablić

46'▲P. Pedersen←▼Leandro Ribeiro

72'▲A. Belousov←▼Maxim Cojocaru I

84'▲Y. Kendysh←▼R. Tambe

Sheriff Tiraspol substitutes

9Pedersen17Belousov77Kendysh8Ghecev18Anton23Kovačević33Paşcenco

Manager: V. Andronic

63'▲N. Trifonov←▼C. Ursu

66'▲G. Ochincă←▼P. Costin

82'▲S. Nazar←▼I. Mamaliga

Codru Lozova substitutes

19Trifonov3Ochincă97Nazar25Pascarenco6Ţîbuleac7Adam23Zabun