Codru Lozova 0–3 Sheriff Tiraspol: Result & Stats

Codru Lozova

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Sheriff Tiraspol

R. Tambe 87'

V. Dijinari 34'

Y. Kendysh 29'

11/2/2019

Super Liga · Round 27Baza Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Codru Lozova6%

×Draw14%

Sheriff Tiraspol80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Codru LozovaExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.55

2.50

Codru Lozova

0.55

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.50

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 355% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 90 away

0.61

creates per match

2.08

2.93

allows per match

0.49

creates per match

Codru Lozova

0.61

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.08

allows per match

Codru Lozova

2.93

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Codru Lozova+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Codru Lozova ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–215%

0–313%

0–48%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Codru Lozova or draw

20%

Codru Lozova or Sheriff Tiraspol

86%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

94%

Winning margin

Codru Lozova wins by 2+

1%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Codru Lozova 1+ goals

42%

Codru Lozova 2+ goals

11%

Codru Lozova 3+ goals

2%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

92%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

71%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Codru Lozova (draw refunded)

7%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Codru Lozova at home — creates 0.61, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.49 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Codru Lozova attack 0.61 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.55

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.08 + Codru Lozova defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Codru Lozova scores more

6%

level

14%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

80%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Y. Kendysh

31'

E. Zaplitnîi← D. Buhanenco

34'

V. Dijinari

46'

G. Anton← A. Borysiuk

54'

A. Drab← D. Adam

62'

W. Balima← A. Belousov

64'

C. Ursu

66'

G. Coscodan

70'

A. Lukic

72'

R. Tambe← Cristiano

80'

B. Stoianov← D. Rogac

87'

R. Tambe

Codru

Sheriff

1

91

44

3

15

▼

Cristiano

98

I

22

⚽

Dijinari

16

▼

Borysiuk

77

⚽

Kendysh

17

▼

76

1

16

2

28

34

99

19

7

▼

Adam

9

Chirciu

96

▼

Rogac

90

▼

Buhanenco

Manager: V. Andronic

31'▲E. Zaplitnîi←▼D. Buhanenco

54'▲A. Drab←▼D. Adam

80'▲B. Stoianov←▼D. Rogac

Codru Lozova substitutes

6Zaplitnîi77Drab4Stoianov5Jalbă25Pascarenco

Manager: Z. Zekić

46'▲G. Anton←▼A. Borysiuk

62'▲W. Balima←▼A. Belousov

72'▲R. Tambe←▼Cristiano

Sheriff Tiraspol substitutes

18Anton14Balima29Tambe8Ghecev33Paşcenco70Ribeiro90Posmac