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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Alashkert — UEFA Champions League 2026

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Alashkert
Alashkert
7/28/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundMalaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol62%
×Draw21%
Alashkert17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
2.02
Alashkert
0.93

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 117% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.36
Alashkert
1.00

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.86
Alashkert
2.67

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
Alashkert+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Alashkert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
83%
Sheriff Tiraspol or Alashkert
79%
Draw or Alashkert
38%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
38%
Alashkert wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
87%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
60%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
33%
Alashkert 1+ goals
61%
Alashkert 2+ goals
24%
Alashkert 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
79%
Alashkert (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Alashkert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.36 + Alashkert defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Alashkert attack 1.00 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
62%
level
21%
Alashkert scores more
17%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Alashkert

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Alashkert 3-1 in UEFA Champions League on July 28, 2021.

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.