Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua

Shenzhen Ruby FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

10/29/2021

FA Cup · Quarter-finalsJinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC36%

×Draw24%

Shanghai Shenhua40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shenzhen Ruby FCExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.55

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.47

Shanghai Shenhua

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

2.33

creates per match

2.11

1.00

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.33

Shanghai Shenhua

2.11

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.00

Shanghai Shenhua

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw

60%

Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shanghai Shenhua

76%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

64%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

17%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

77%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

43%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

18%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

79%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

46%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

48%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 2.33 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.11 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

36%

level

24%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

40%

Shanghai Shenhua at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

50'

62'

67'

67'

Cao Yunding← Zhao Mingjian

75'

Zheng Dalun← Zhang Yuan I

83'

A. N'Doumbou← G. Moreno

85'

Sun Ke← Mi Haolun

87'

LI Yuanyi

90+1'

Zhang Lu← Peng Xinli

Shenzhen

Shanghai

19

Cheng

6

Xiaoting

13

▼

22

2

38

10

▼

Moreno

25

▼

Xinli

11

Hanchao

37

Shilin

15

▼

Xu

1

Lu

25

▼

2

39

6

28

14

8

27

11

▼

I

7

Acheampon

Manager: Carlos Granero

75'▲Zheng Dalun←▼Zhang Yuan I

85'▲Sun Ke←▼Mi Haolun

Shenzhen Ruby FC substitutes

16Dalun38Ke13Haofeng17Minzhe18Xiangyu21Zhipeng23Wei24Xin30Ruifeng31Zixiang

Manager: Yijun Mao

67'▲Bi Jinhao←▼Yang Xu

67'▲Cao Yunding←▼Zhao Mingjian

83'▲A. N'Doumbou←▼G. Moreno

90+1'▲Zhang Lu←▼Peng Xinli

Shanghai Shenhua substitutes

3Jinhao28Yunding7N'Doumbou8Lu1Zhen16Yunqiu18Yi23Jiajun26Sheng29Longhai33Haijian

FA Cup: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua

Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua drew 0-0 in FA Cup on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium in Dalian.

Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua