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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
9/4/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC29%
×Draw25%
Shanghai Shenhua46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.16
Shanghai Shenhua
1.53

Shanghai Shenhua creates 32% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 119 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Shanghai Shenhua
1.43

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Shanghai Shenhua
1.23

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
54%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shanghai Shenhua
75%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
71%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
12%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
69%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
32%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
11%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
78%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
45%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
39%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.43 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
29%
level
25%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
46%

Shanghai Shenhua at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua

Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shanghai Shenhua drew 0-0 in Super League on September 4, 2020.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.