Shenzhen Ruby FC 3–2 Nei Mongol Zhongyou

Shenzhen Ruby FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

5/30/2018

League One · Round 12Shenzhen City Stadium (Shenzhen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC56%

×Draw22%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shenzhen Ruby FCExpected goals in this matchNei Mongol Zhongyou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.21

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.01

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.21

Shenzhen Ruby FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 40 away

2.40

creates per match

1.15

1.27

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.40

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.15

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.27

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Nei Mongol Zhongyou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw

77%

Shenzhen Ruby FC or Nei Mongol Zhongyou

78%

Draw or Nei Mongol Zhongyou

44%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

33%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

87%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

59%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

32%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals

70%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals

34%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

71%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 2.40 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.01

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.15 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

56%

level

22%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more

23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff