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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
9/24/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC32%
×Draw24%
Hangzhou Greentown43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.36
Hangzhou Greentown
1.61

Hangzhou Greentown creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 73 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Hangzhou Greentown
1.60

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Hangzhou Greentown
1.63

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
57%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Hangzhou Greentown
76%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
68%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
14%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
74%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
39%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
16%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
80%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
48%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
43%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.60 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
32%
level
24%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
43%

Hangzhou Greentown at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown

Hangzhou Greentown beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 5-0 in Super League on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Shenzhen.