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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
7/11/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC30%
×Draw25%
Beijing Guoan46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.25
Beijing Guoan
1.61

Beijing Guoan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 121 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Beijing Guoan
1.59

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Beijing Guoan
1.42

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
54%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Beijing Guoan
75%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
70%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
12%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
71%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
36%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
13%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
80%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
48%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
39%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
30%
level
25%
Beijing Guoan scores more
46%

Beijing Guoan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan

Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 in Super League on July 11, 2022.

The match was played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.