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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
4/4/2018League OneLeague One · Round 4Shenzhen City Stadium (Shenzhen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC56%
×Draw22%
Beijing Baxy22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.98
Beijing Baxy
1.17

Shenzhen Ruby FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 71 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.40
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.27
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
78%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Beijing Baxy
78%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
44%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
33%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
86%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
59%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
31%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
69%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
33%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
72%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 2.40 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.98

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
56%
level
22%
Beijing Baxy scores more
22%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shenzhen Ruby FC 1–2 Beijing Baxy

Beijing Baxy beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 in League One on April 4, 2018.

The match was played at Shenzhen City Stadium (Shenzhen).