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Shenzhen Jixiang vs Yanbian Longding — FA Cup 2019

Shenzhen Jixiang
Shenzhen Jixiang
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
4/19/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundShenzhen Youth Football Training Base Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shenzhen Jixiang52%
×Draw28%
Yanbian Longding20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Jixiang
1.38
Yanbian Longding
0.75

Shenzhen Jixiang creates 84% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Jixiang
1.75
Yanbian Longding
1.00

allows per match

Shenzhen Jixiang
0.50
Yanbian Longding
1.00

finishing

Shenzhen Jixiang+0.00on par
Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Jixiang ↓

Yanbian Longding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shenzhen Jixiang or draw
80%
Shenzhen Jixiang or Yanbian Longding
72%
Draw or Yanbian Longding
48%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Jixiang wins by 2+
25%
Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shenzhen Jixiang 1+ goals
75%
Shenzhen Jixiang 2+ goals
40%
Shenzhen Jixiang 3+ goals
16%
Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
53%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
17%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Jixiang (draw refunded)
72%
Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Jixiang at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Yanbian Longding away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Jixiang attack 1.75 + Yanbian Longding defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Yanbian Longding attack 1.00 + Shenzhen Jixiang defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shenzhen Jixiang scores more
52%
level
28%
Yanbian Longding scores more
20%

Shenzhen Jixiang at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shenzhen Jixiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shenzhen Jixiang 0 – 0 Yanbian Longding

Shenzhen Jixiang and Yanbian Longding drew 0-0 in FA Cup on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Shenzhen Youth Football Training Base Pitch 1 in Shenzhen.