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Shenzhen Jixiang vs Inner Mongolia Caoshang. — FA Cup 2019

Shenzhen Jixiang
Shenzhen Jixiang
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
3/16/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundShenzhen Bao'an Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shenzhen Jixiang72%
×Draw19%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Jixiang
2.04
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.58

Shenzhen Jixiang creates 252% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Jixiang
1.75
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.67

allows per match

Shenzhen Jixiang
0.50
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
2.33

finishing

Shenzhen Jixiang+0.00on par
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Jixiang ↓

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shenzhen Jixiang or draw
91%
Shenzhen Jixiang or Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
81%
Draw or Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
28%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Jixiang wins by 2+
46%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Shenzhen Jixiang 1+ goals
87%
Shenzhen Jixiang 2+ goals
60%
Shenzhen Jixiang 3+ goals
33%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1+ goals
44%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 2+ goals
12%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Jixiang (draw refunded)
88%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Jixiang at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Jixiang attack 1.75 + Inner Mongolia Caoshang. defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. attack 0.67 + Shenzhen Jixiang defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Shenzhen Jixiang scores more
72%
level
19%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. scores more
9%

Shenzhen Jixiang at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Shenzhen Jixiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shenzhen Jixiang vs Inner Mongolia Caoshang.

Shenzhen Jixiang beat Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3-0 in FA Cup on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Shenzhen.