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Shenzhen Jixiang vs Guangxi Lanhang — FA Cup 2019

Shenzhen Jixiang
Shenzhen Jixiang
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
4/20/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundShenzhen Youth Football Training Center Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shenzhen Jixiang52%
×Draw26%
Guangxi Lanhang23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Jixiang
1.54
Guangxi Lanhang
0.92

Shenzhen Jixiang creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Jixiang
1.75
Guangxi Lanhang
1.33

allows per match

Shenzhen Jixiang
0.50
Guangxi Lanhang
1.33

finishing

Shenzhen Jixiang+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Jixiang ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shenzhen Jixiang or draw
77%
Shenzhen Jixiang or Guangxi Lanhang
74%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
48%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Jixiang wins by 2+
27%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shenzhen Jixiang 1+ goals
79%
Shenzhen Jixiang 2+ goals
45%
Shenzhen Jixiang 3+ goals
20%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
60%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
23%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Jixiang (draw refunded)
70%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Jixiang at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Jixiang attack 1.75 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Guangxi Lanhang attack 1.33 + Shenzhen Jixiang defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shenzhen Jixiang scores more
52%
level
26%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
23%

Shenzhen Jixiang at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shenzhen Jixiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shenzhen Jixiang vs Guangxi Lanhang

Shenzhen Jixiang beat Guangxi Lanhang 3-1 in FA Cup on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Shenzhen Youth Football Training Center Field 1 in Shenzhen.