Shenyang Urban 1–2 Yunnan Yukun: Result & Stats

Shenyang Urban

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Yunnan Yukun

G. Mbenza 90'

O. Taty Maritu 61'

Huang Zichang 8'

5/10/2026

Super League · Round 11Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Shenyang Urban51%

×Draw22%

Yunnan Yukun27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shenyang UrbanExpected goals in this matchYunnan Yukun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.43

Shenyang Urban

2.03

Yunnan Yukun

1.43

Shenyang Urban creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

1.05

1.80

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Shenyang Urban

1.60

Yunnan Yukun

1.05

allows per match

Shenyang Urban

1.80

Yunnan Yukun

2.46

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

Shenyang Urban-0.31scores less

Yunnan Yukun+0.42scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Yunnan Yukun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw

73%

Shenyang Urban or Yunnan Yukun

78%

Draw or Yunnan Yukun

49%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+

30%

Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals

87%

Shenyang Urban 2+ goals

60%

Shenyang Urban 3+ goals

33%

Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals

76%

Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals

42%

Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)

65%

Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 7 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.46 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.60 + Yunnan Yukun defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.03

Yunnan Yukun attack 1.05 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more

51%

level

22%

Yunnan Yukun scores more

27%

Shenyang Urban at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Huang Zichang

Yunnan Yukun · D

8.3

Match Events

8'

Huang Zichang↳ Xu Xin

46'

Gao Jiarun← Pan Ximing

61'

G. Mbenza← Li Haoran

61'

O. Taty Maritu↳ Cleber

67'

Tian Deao← Li Tixiang

78'

Zhao Yuhao← J. Saeter

83'

Han Zilong← O. Taty Maritu

83'

Chen Yuhao← Huang Zichang

87'

Yi Teng← Xu Xin

87'

B. Abdusalam← A. Ionita II

90+4'

Chen Yuhao

90'

Zang Yifeng← A. Kouame

90'

G. Mbenza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShenyangYunnan

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots12

1.19Expected Goals (xG)1.20

4Corners4

13Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target8

7Off Target4

3Blocked0

8Inside Box10

5Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

370Total Passes422

294Accurate Passes338

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

7Offsides2