Shenyang Urban 1–1 Jinan Xingzhou: Result & Stats

Shenyang Urban

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jinan Xingzhou

5/10/2023

League One · Round 4Shenyang Institute of Urban Construction Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shenyang Urban38%

×Draw27%

Jinan Xingzhou35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shenyang UrbanExpected goals in this matchJinan Xingzhou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.22

Shenyang Urban

1.28

Jinan Xingzhou

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

1.43

creates per match

1.07

1.36

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Shenyang Urban

1.43

Jinan Xingzhou

1.07

allows per match

Shenyang Urban

1.36

Jinan Xingzhou

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw

65%

Shenyang Urban or Jinan Xingzhou

73%

Draw or Jinan Xingzhou

62%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+

17%

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals

72%

Shenyang Urban 2+ goals

37%

Shenyang Urban 3+ goals

14%

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals

70%

Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals

34%

Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)

52%

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.43 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more

38%

level

27%

Jinan Xingzhou scores more

35%

Shenyang Urban at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff