Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shenyang Urban vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — League One 2018

Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
7/29/2023League OneLeague One · Round 16Shenyang Institute of Urban Construction Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shenyang Urban37%
×Draw25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenyang Urban
1.45
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shenyang Urban
1.43
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.57

allows per match

Shenyang Urban
1.36
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.47

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw
62%
Shenyang Urban or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
75%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
63%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
17%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
77%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
42%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
18%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
77%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
43%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
49%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.43 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more
37%
level
25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
38%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shenyang Urban 3–1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Shenyang Urban beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-1 in League One on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Shenyang Institute of Urban Construction Stadium in Shenyang.