Shenyang Urban vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Shenyang Urban54%
Guangxi Baoyun21%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Shenyang Urban creates 78% more chances
Season form · 32 home / 36 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Shenyang Urban ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.84 · 32 matches
Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Shenyang Urban attack 1.88 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.62
Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.97 + Shenyang Urban defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Shenyang Urban at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Shenyang Urban
Guangzhou E-Power
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Yanbian Longding
Hebei Kungfu
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Nantong Zhiyun
Dalian Huayi
Shaanxi Union
Suzhou Dongwu
Nanjing City
Shanghai Jiading
Dongguan United
Shenzhen JuniorsGuangxi Baoyun
Qingdao Red LionsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shenyang Urban host Guangxi Baoyun on Sunday, 14 July 2024 at 11:00. The match is part of the League One 2024/2025 season.
Shenyang Urban 2 – 1 Guangxi Baoyun
Shenyang Urban beat Guangxi Baoyun 2-1 in League One on July 14, 2024.
Goals: Fan Chao (34'), João Carlos (65', 82').
The match was played at Shenyang Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Shenyang.