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Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2018

Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
4/4/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shenyang Urban37%
×Draw24%
Beijing Guoan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenyang Urban
1.54
Beijing Guoan
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 121 away

creates per match

Shenyang Urban
1.67
Beijing Guoan
1.59

allows per match

Shenyang Urban
1.56
Beijing Guoan
1.42

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw
61%
Shenyang Urban or Beijing Guoan
76%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
63%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
18%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
79%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
45%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
20%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
79%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
47%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
49%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.67 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.54

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more
37%
level
24%
Beijing Guoan scores more
39%

Beijing Guoan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shenyang Urban 2–1 Beijing Guoan

Shenyang Urban beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 in Super League on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Shenyang.