Shenyang Urban 0–2 Beijing Baxy: Result & Stats

Shenyang Urban

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Beijing Baxy

12/7/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 20Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Shenyang Urban44%

×Draw25%

Beijing Baxy31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shenyang UrbanExpected goals in this matchBeijing Baxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.22

Shenyang Urban

1.50

Beijing Baxy

1.22

Shenyang Urban creates 23% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 71 away

1.43

creates per match

1.07

1.36

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Shenyang Urban

1.43

Beijing Baxy

1.07

allows per match

Shenyang Urban

1.36

Beijing Baxy

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Beijing Baxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw

69%

Shenyang Urban or Beijing Baxy

75%

Draw or Beijing Baxy

56%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+

21%

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals

78%

Shenyang Urban 2+ goals

44%

Shenyang Urban 3+ goals

19%

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals

70%

Beijing Baxy 2+ goals

34%

Beijing Baxy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)

59%

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.43 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more

44%

level

25%

Beijing Baxy scores more

31%

Shenyang Urban at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff