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Shënkolli vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Shënkolli
Shënkolli
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
6/21/20201st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 4Stadiumi Shënkoll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shënkolli42%
×Draw25%
Turbina Cërrik33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shënkolli
1.50
Turbina Cërrik
1.31

Shënkolli creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 52 away

creates per match

Shënkolli
1.07
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Shënkolli
1.79
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Shënkolli+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shënkolli ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shënkolli or draw
67%
Shënkolli or Turbina Cërrik
75%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
58%

Winning margin

Shënkolli wins by 2+
20%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shënkolli 1+ goals
78%
Shënkolli 2+ goals
44%
Shënkolli 3+ goals
19%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
73%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
38%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shënkolli (draw refunded)
56%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shënkolli at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shënkolli attack 1.07 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.50

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Shënkolli defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shënkolli scores more
42%
level
25%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
33%

Shënkolli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shënkolli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shënkolli vs Turbina Cërrik

Turbina Cërrik beat Shënkolli 3-0 in 1st Division on June 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shënkoll in Shënkoll.