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Shënkolli vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Shënkolli
Shënkolli
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
2/8/20201st Division1st Division · Round 15Stadiumi Shënkoll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shënkolli32%
×Draw25%
Besa Kavajë43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shënkolli
1.27
Besa Kavajë
1.50

Besa Kavajë creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 100 away

creates per match

Shënkolli
1.07
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Shënkolli
1.79
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Shënkolli+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shënkolli ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shënkolli or draw
57%
Shënkolli or Besa Kavajë
75%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
68%

Winning margin

Shënkolli wins by 2+
14%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shënkolli 1+ goals
72%
Shënkolli 2+ goals
36%
Shënkolli 3+ goals
14%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
78%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
44%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shënkolli (draw refunded)
43%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shënkolli at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shënkolli attack 1.07 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Shënkolli defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shënkolli scores more
32%
level
25%
Besa Kavajë scores more
43%

Besa Kavajë at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shënkolli vs Besa Kavajë

Besa Kavajë beat Shënkolli 1-0 in 1st Division on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shënkoll in Shënkoll.