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Shelbourne W vs Treaty Utd W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Shelbourne W
Shelbourne Wadvanced
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Treaty Utd W
Treaty Utd W
M. Smyth-Lynch 90+1'
J. Quinn 87'
J. Gargan 67', 12'
M. Anthony 45+3'
N. Murray 44'
7/5/2025All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Quarter-Finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Shelbourne W70%
×Draw18%
Treaty Utd W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shelbourne W
2.23
Treaty Utd W
0.78

Shelbourne W creates 186% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Shelbourne W
2.90
Treaty Utd W
0.86

allows per match

Shelbourne W
0.70
Treaty Utd W
1.57

finishing

Shelbourne W+0.00on par
Treaty Utd W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne W ↓

Treaty Utd W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shelbourne W or draw
88%
Shelbourne W or Treaty Utd W
82%
Draw or Treaty Utd W
30%

Winning margin

Shelbourne W wins by 2+
46%
Treaty Utd W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shelbourne W 1+ goals
89%
Shelbourne W 2+ goals
65%
Shelbourne W 3+ goals
38%
Treaty Utd W 1+ goals
54%
Treaty Utd W 2+ goals
18%
Treaty Utd W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne W (draw refunded)
86%
Treaty Utd W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne W at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Treaty Utd W away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne W attack 2.90 + Treaty Utd W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.23

Treaty Utd W attack 0.86 + Shelbourne W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Shelbourne W scores more
70%
level
18%
Treaty Utd W scores more
12%

Shelbourne W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Shelbourne W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
J. Gargan
44'
N. Murray
45+3'
M. Anthony
67'
J. Gargan
87'
J. Quinn
90+1'
M. Smyth-Lynch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shelbourne W 6 – 0 Treaty Utd W

Shelbourne W beat Treaty Utd W 6-0 in All-Island Cup - Women on July 5, 2025.

Goals: J. Gargan (12', 67'), N. Murray (44'), M. Anthony (45+3'), J. Quinn (87'), M. Smyth-Lynch (90+1').