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Shelbourne W vs Cork City W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Shelbourne W
Shelbourne W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Cork City W
Cork City W
J. Quinn 25', 20', 12'
4/20/2024All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shelbourne W68%
×Draw18%
Cork City W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shelbourne W
2.39
Cork City W
0.97

Shelbourne W creates 146% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Shelbourne W
2.90
Cork City W
1.25

allows per match

Shelbourne W
0.70
Cork City W
1.88

finishing

Shelbourne W+0.00on par
Cork City W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne W ↓

Cork City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Shelbourne W or draw
86%
Shelbourne W or Cork City W
82%
Draw or Cork City W
32%

Winning margin

Shelbourne W wins by 2+
46%
Cork City W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shelbourne W 1+ goals
91%
Shelbourne W 2+ goals
69%
Shelbourne W 3+ goals
42%
Cork City W 1+ goals
62%
Cork City W 2+ goals
25%
Cork City W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne W (draw refunded)
83%
Cork City W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne W at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Cork City W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne W attack 2.90 + Cork City W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.39

Cork City W attack 1.25 + Shelbourne W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shelbourne W scores more
68%
level
18%
Cork City W scores more
14%

Shelbourne W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Shelbourne W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
J. Quinn
20'
J. Quinn
25'
J. Quinn

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

All-Island Cup - Women: Shelbourne W 3–0 Cork City W

Shelbourne W beat Cork City W 3-0 in All-Island Cup - Women on April 20, 2024.

Goals: J. Quinn (12', 20', 25').

The match was played at Tolka Park in Dublin.