Shelbourne W 2–1 Athlone WFC W: Result & Stats

Shelbourne W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Athlone WFC W

N. Murray 78', 45+5'

C. Howe 15'

6/22/2024

All-Island Cup - Women · Quarter-finalsTolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shelbourne W57%

×Draw21%

Athlone WFC W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shelbourne WExpected goals in this matchAthlone WFC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.19

Shelbourne W

2.06

Athlone WFC W

1.19

Shelbourne W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.90

creates per match

1.67

0.70

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Shelbourne W

2.90

Athlone WFC W

1.67

allows per match

Shelbourne W

0.70

Athlone WFC W

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shelbourne W+0.00on par

Athlone WFC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne W ↓

Athlone WFC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Shelbourne W or draw

78%

Shelbourne W or Athlone WFC W

79%

Draw or Athlone WFC W

43%

Winning margin

Shelbourne W wins by 2+

34%

Athlone WFC W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shelbourne W 1+ goals

87%

Shelbourne W 2+ goals

61%

Shelbourne W 3+ goals

34%

Athlone WFC W 1+ goals

70%

Athlone WFC W 2+ goals

33%

Athlone WFC W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne W (draw refunded)

73%

Athlone WFC W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne W at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Athlone WFC W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne W attack 2.90 + Athlone WFC W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Athlone WFC W attack 1.67 + Shelbourne W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shelbourne W scores more

57%

level

21%

Athlone WFC W scores more

22%

Shelbourne W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shelbourne W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

C. Howe

45+5'

N. Murray

46'

K. Shine← K. Shine

61'

I. Ryan← I. Ryan

61'

M. Gibson← M. Gibson

65'

J. Quinn← J. Quinn

65'

E. O'Mahony← E. O'Mahony

68'

N. Murray

71'

K. Keenan← K. Keenan

75'

K. McCarn← K. McCarn

75'

N. Clare← N. Clare

77'

←

78'

N. Murray

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff