Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shelbourne vs Waterford — Premier Division 2026

Shelbourne
Shelbourne
Preview
19:45
Waterford
Waterford
10/30/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 36Tolka Park
Big match
63%
Shelbourne
model favours
63%21%16%

Shelbourne are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Shelbourne63%
×Draw21%
Waterford16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shelbourne
2.05
Waterford
0.92

Shelbourne creates 123% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Shelbourne
2.02
Waterford
0.89

allows per match

Shelbourne
0.94
Waterford
2.08

finishing

Shelbourne-0.02on par
Waterford-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Waterford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw
84%
Shelbourne or Waterford
79%
Draw or Waterford
37%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+
39%
Waterford wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals
87%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
61%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
33%
Waterford 1+ goals
60%
Waterford 2+ goals
23%
Waterford 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)
80%
Waterford (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.94 · 6 matches

Waterford away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.08 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.02 + Waterford defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.05

Waterford attack 0.89 + Shelbourne defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shelbourne scores more
63%
level
21%
Waterford scores more
16%

Shelbourne at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Waterford are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Waterford score first in only 25% of matches
  • Even after scoring first, Shelbourne win only 41%
  • Shelbourne have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Waterford win just 17% of their away games
  • Both teams score in 70% of Shelbourne’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shelbourne
Attack-heavy
Waterford
Direct / counter-attacking
56%Possession45%
80%Pass accuracy66%
14.3Shots10.9
1.73xGBiggest gap1.14
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShelbourneWaterford

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Shelbourne
2
Draws
1
Waterford
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 60%
2–11–12–12–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shelbourne
WDDWD
Waterford
DWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shelbourne face Waterford (Premier Division)

Premier Division returns with Shelbourne hosting Waterford. Match starts October 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shelbourne host Waterford at Tolka Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.