Shelbourne 1–0 Waterford: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Waterford

S. Boyd 72'

5/17/2024

Premier Division · Round 16Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Shelbourne63%

×Draw21%

Waterford16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchWaterford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.92

Shelbourne

2.05

Waterford

0.92

Shelbourne creates 123% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.02

creates per match

0.89

0.94

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Shelbourne

2.02

Waterford

0.89

allows per match

Shelbourne

0.94

Waterford

2.08

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Shelbourne-0.02on par

Waterford-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Waterford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

84%

Shelbourne or Waterford

79%

Draw or Waterford

37%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

39%

Waterford wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

87%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

61%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

33%

Waterford 1+ goals

60%

Waterford 2+ goals

23%

Waterford 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

80%

Waterford (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.94 · 6 matches

Waterford away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.08 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.02 + Waterford defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.05

Waterford attack 0.89 + Shelbourne defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shelbourne scores more

63%

level

21%

Waterford scores more

16%

Shelbourne at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

S. Sargeant

Waterford · G

8.3

Match Events

15'

Kacper Radkowski

33'

Jonathan Lunney

42'

John Martin

46'

H. Macadam← K. Radkowski

61'

S. Boyd← J. Martin

61'

L. Burt← J. Lunney

62'

C. Pattisson← C. Parsons

72'

S. Boyd↳ W. Jarvis

74'

B. McCormack← D. McMenamy

75'

Paddy Barrett

78'

J. O'Sullivan← M. Smith

87'

G. Arubi← D. Power

90+2'

Liam Burt

90'

T. Wilson← W. Jarvis

90'

L. Temple← P. Barrett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShelbourneWaterford

Overview

64%Possession36%

20Total Shots11

10Corners2

9Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots11

7On Target4

5Off Target4

8Blocked3

13Inside Box4

7Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

497Total Passes290

400Accurate Passes205

80%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls16

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0