Shelbourne 3–2 UCD: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

UCD

J. Moylan 89', 63' (pen), 20' (pen)

D. Kinsella-Bishop 81'

M. Raggett 50'

10/27/2023

Premier Division · Round 35Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Shelbourne63%

×Draw21%

UCD15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchUCD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.84

Shelbourne

1.96

UCD

0.84

Shelbourne creates 133% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 55 away

1.24

creates per match

0.60

1.09

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Shelbourne

1.24

UCD

0.60

allows per match

Shelbourne

1.09

UCD

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shelbourne+0.00on par

UCD+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

UCD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

85%

Shelbourne or UCD

79%

Draw or UCD

37%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

39%

UCD wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

86%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

58%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

31%

UCD 1+ goals

57%

UCD 2+ goals

21%

UCD 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

80%

UCD (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 92 matches

UCD away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 1.24 + UCD defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

UCD attack 0.60 + Shelbourne defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shelbourne scores more

63%

level

21%

UCD scores more

15%

Shelbourne at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Moylan

Shelbourne · F

9.2

Match Events

20'

J. MoylanPenalty

46'

H. O'Brien← É. Clancy

50'

M. Raggett

63'

J. MoylanPenalty

64'

T. Wilson← S. Griffin

64'

E. Caffrey← Euclides Cabral

64'

C. Behan← D. Norris

75'

J. Doyle← S. Brennan

75'

D. Kinsella-Bishop← M. Raggett

77'

K. Ledwidge← W. Jarvis

81'

D. Kinsella-Bishop↳ C. Behan

89'

G. Arubi← H. Wood

89'

90'

90+4'

90+1'

90+3'

D. Babb← E. Osam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShelbourneUCD

Overview

70%Possession30%

18Total Shots7

7Corners2

8Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots7

5On Target3

5Off Target1

8Blocked3

11Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

70%Possession30%

589Total Passes243

489Accurate Passes144

83%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1