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Shelbourne vs Longford Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Shelbourne
Shelbourne
FT
4 – 1
Longford Town
Longford Town
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shelbourne78%
×Draw14%
Longford Town9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shelbourne
2.88
Longford Town
0.88

Shelbourne creates 227% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Shelbourne
2.75
Longford Town
0.75

allows per match

Shelbourne
1.00
Longford Town
3.00

finishing

Shelbourne+0.00on par
Longford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Longford Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw
91%
Shelbourne or Longford Town
86%
Draw or Longford Town
22%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+
57%
Longford Town wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals
94%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
78%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
54%
Longford Town 1+ goals
59%
Longford Town 2+ goals
22%
Longford Town 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)
90%
Longford Town (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Longford Town away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.75 + Longford Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Longford Town attack 0.75 + Shelbourne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Shelbourne scores more
78%
level
14%
Longford Town scores more
9%

Shelbourne at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Shelbourne
Longford
Joey O'Brien
Manager: Joey O'Brien
W. Groves
Manager: W. Groves

Match Recap: Shelbourne vs Longford Town

Shelbourne beat Longford Town 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.