Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shelbourne vs Limerick — First Division 2019

Shelbourne
Shelbourne
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Limerick
Limerick
4/19/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 9Tolka Park (Dublin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shelbourne66%
×Draw20%
Limerick14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shelbourne
2.02
Limerick
0.80

Shelbourne creates 153% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Shelbourne
2.04
Limerick
0.85

allows per match

Shelbourne
0.75
Limerick
2.00

finishing

Shelbourne+0.00on par
Limerick+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Limerick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw
86%
Shelbourne or Limerick
80%
Draw or Limerick
34%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+
41%
Limerick wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals
87%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
60%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
33%
Limerick 1+ goals
55%
Limerick 2+ goals
19%
Limerick 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)
82%
Limerick (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Limerick away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.04 + Limerick defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Limerick attack 0.85 + Shelbourne defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Shelbourne scores more
66%
level
20%
Limerick scores more
14%

Shelbourne at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shelbourne vs Limerick

Shelbourne beat Limerick 2-0 in First Division on April 19, 2019.

The match was played at Tolka Park (Dublin).