Shelbourne 0–1 Drita: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Drita

A. Ajzeraj 57'

11/6/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Shelbourne44%

×Draw28%

Drita28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchDrita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.96

Shelbourne

1.28

Drita

0.96

Shelbourne creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.43

creates per match

0.79

1.14

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Shelbourne

1.43

Drita

0.79

allows per match

Shelbourne

1.14

Drita

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Drita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Drita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

72%

Shelbourne or Drita

72%

Draw or Drita

56%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

20%

Drita wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

72%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

37%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

14%

Drita 1+ goals

62%

Drita 2+ goals

25%

Drita 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

61%

Drita (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Drita away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 1.43 + Drita defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Drita attack 0.79 + Shelbourne defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shelbourne scores more

44%

level

28%

Drita scores more

28%

Shelbourne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

E. Bejtulai

Drita · D

7.9

Match Events

15'

James NorrisCard upgrade

16'

James Norris

20'

K. Ledwidge← D. Kelly

46'

57'

63'

67'

71'

K. Abazaj← M. Soumahoro

78'

A. Coote← H. Wood

78'

E. Caffrey← J. Henry-Francis

81'

I. Mustafa← R. Broja

90+3'

M. Arthur← A. Ajzeraj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShelbourneDrita

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots20

1.06Expected Goals (xG)1.31

6Corners3

13Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots20

2On Target5

5Off Target8

3Blocked7

6Inside Box11

4Outside Box9

Passing

38%Possession62%

336Total Passes552

254Accurate Passes487

76%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.27Goals Prevented0.27

Discipline

13Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2