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Shelbourne vs Derry City — Premier Division 2025

Shelbourne
Shelbourne
Preview
18:45
Derry City
Derry City
9/11/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 31Tolka Park
Big match
39%
Shelbourne
model favours
39%27%34%

Even after scoring first, Shelbourne win only 40%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Shelbourne39%
×Draw27%
Derry City34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shelbourne
1.29
Derry City
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Shelbourne
1.39
Derry City
1.10

allows per match

Shelbourne
1.29
Derry City
1.19

finishing

Shelbourne+0.00on par
Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw
66%
Shelbourne or Derry City
73%
Draw or Derry City
61%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+
17%
Derry City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals
72%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
37%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
14%
Derry City 1+ goals
70%
Derry City 2+ goals
34%
Derry City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)
53%
Derry City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Derry City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Derry City attack 1.10 + Shelbourne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shelbourne scores more
39%
level
27%
Derry City scores more
34%

Shelbourne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Derry City have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 71% of Derry City’s matches
  • Even after scoring first, Derry City win only 50%
  • Style contrast — Shelbourne play Possession-dominant, Derry City Defensively solid
  • Shelbourne fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 2.1 expected)
  • 31% of Shelbourne’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shelbourne
Possession-dominant
Derry City
Defensively solid
58%Possession53%
81%Pass accuracy73%
15.8Shots12.4
2.12xGBiggest gap1.34
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShelbourneDerry City

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Shelbourne
2
Draws
3
Derry City
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 57%
0–01–22–11–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shelbourne
DWDLD
City
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shelbourne host Derry City

September 11, 2026: Shelbourne take on Derry City in Premier Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shelbourne host Derry City at Tolka Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.