Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Derry City vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2025

Derry City
Derry City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
H. Rylah 10'
D. Kelly 34'
J. Henry-Francis 8'
3/13/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 6The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Derry City41%
×Draw26%
Shelbourne33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.22

Derry City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 29 away

creates per match

Derry City
1.66
Shelbourne
1.38

allows per match

Derry City
1.06
Shelbourne
1.10

finishing

Derry City+0.00on par
Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Derry City or draw
67%
Derry City or Shelbourne
74%
Draw or Shelbourne
59%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+
19%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals
75%
Derry City 2+ goals
40%
Derry City 3+ goals
16%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
70%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
34%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)
55%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.66 + Shelbourne defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shelbourne attack 1.38 + Derry City defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Derry City scores more
41%
level
26%
Shelbourne scores more
33%

Derry City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
J. Henry-FrancisShelbourneShelbourne · M
8.2

Match Events

8'
J. Henry-Francis↳ M. Lundgren
10'
H. Rylah↳ J. McClean
31'
J. Norris← S. Bone
34'
D. Kelly
58'
J. Olayinka← A. O'Reilly
58'
K. Santos← B. Cotter
59'
D. Markey← H. Rylah
71'
J. Thomas← D. Akinyemi
72'
R. Freitas← J. Martin
72'
W. Jarvis← M. Lundgren
76'
Jack Henry-Francis
78'
C. Dummigan← A. Bannon
84'
A. Coote← H. Wood
84'
E. Caffrey← J. Henry-Francis
87'
Zeno Ibsen Rossi

Possession

57%Derry

Shots

17Derry

Pass accuracy

54%Derry

Statistics

DerryShelbourne
Overview
57%Possession43%
17Total Shots7
0.89Expected Goals (xG)1.04
7Corners3
11Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots7
4On Target4
7Off Target1
6Blocked2
6Inside Box4
11Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
495Total Passes384
411Accurate Passes275
83%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Derry City vs Shelbourne

Shelbourne beat Derry City 2-1 in Premier Division on March 13, 2026.

Goals: J. Henry-Francis (8'), H. Rylah (10'), D. Kelly (34').

Derry City controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Derry.