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Shelbourne vs Derry City — Premier Division 2025

Shelbourne
Shelbourne
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Derry City
Derry City
S. Boyd 45' (pen), 11'
E. Caffrey 15'
M. Duffy 14'
2/14/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 1Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shelbourne57%
×Draw23%
Derry City19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shelbourne
1.75
Derry City
0.91

Shelbourne creates 92% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shelbourne
2.09
Derry City
0.72

allows per match

Shelbourne
1.09
Derry City
1.41

finishing

Shelbourne-0.29scores less
Derry City+0.68scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw
81%
Shelbourne or Derry City
77%
Draw or Derry City
43%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+
32%
Derry City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals
83%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
52%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
25%
Derry City 1+ goals
60%
Derry City 2+ goals
23%
Derry City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)
75%
Derry City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.09 · 5 matches

Derry City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.09 + Derry City defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.75

Derry City attack 0.72 + Shelbourne defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shelbourne scores more
57%
level
23%
Derry City scores more
19%

Shelbourne at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
E. CaffreyShelbourneShelbourne · M
8.2

Match Events

11'
S. Boyd
14'
M. Duffy↳ D. Thomas
15'
E. Caffrey↳ S. Boyd
22'
Adam O'Reilly
38'
Carl Winchester
45'
S. BoydPenalty
53'
Sean Boyd
61'
S. Diallo← C. Winchester
67'
J. Lunney← K. McInroy
69'
G. Whyte← P. Hoban
69'
S. Patton← L. Boyce
78'
P. McMullan← D. Thomas
81'
E. Chapman← S. Boyd
82'
Sadou Diallo
84'
Paddy Barrett
87'
R. O'Kane← E. Caffrey
87'
R. Tulloch← H. Wood
88'
J. Martin← A. Odubeko

Possession

38%Shelbourne

Shots

18Shelbourne

Pass accuracy

47%Shelbourne

Statistics

ShelbourneDerry
Overview
38%Possession62%
18Total Shots10
2Corners3
12Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots10
4On Target5
7Off Target3
7Blocked2
11Inside Box4
7Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
305Total Passes482
219Accurate Passes388
72%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Premier Division: Shelbourne 3–1 Derry City

Shelbourne beat Derry City 3-1 in Premier Division on February 14, 2025.

Goals: S. Boyd (11', 45' pen), M. Duffy (14'), E. Caffrey (15').

Derry City controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Tolka Park in Dublin.