Shelbourne 0–3 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Crystal Palace

Y. Pino 37'

E. Nketiah 25'

C. Uche 11'

12/11/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Shelbourne32%

×Draw27%

Crystal Palace41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.35

Shelbourne

1.15

Crystal Palace

1.35

Crystal Palace creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.43

creates per match

1.57

1.14

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Shelbourne

1.43

Crystal Palace

1.57

allows per match

Shelbourne

1.14

Crystal Palace

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

59%

Shelbourne or Crystal Palace

73%

Draw or Crystal Palace

68%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

13%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

68%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

32%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

11%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

74%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

39%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

44%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 1.43 + Crystal Palace defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Crystal Palace attack 1.57 + Shelbourne defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shelbourne scores more

32%

level

27%

Crystal Palace scores more

41%

Crystal Palace at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Pino

Crystal Palace · F

9.2

Match Events

11'

25'

37'

46'

46'

46'

R. Esse← Y. Pino

48'

Mark Coyle

59'

T. Wilson← K. Ledwidge

59'

67'

75'

81'

81'

82'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShelbourneCrystal

Overview

39%Possession61%

5Total Shots28

0.40Expected Goals (xG)3.89

2Corners9

8Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots28

1On Target10

3Off Target15

1Blocked3

2Inside Box23

3Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

340Total Passes536

264Accurate Passes476

78%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

0.68Goals Prevented0.68

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Shelbourne vs Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace beat Shelbourne 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 11, 2025.

Goals: C. Uche (11'), E. Nketiah (25'), Y. Pino (37').

Crystal Palace controlled possession (61%) and registered 28 shots to 5.

The match was played at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin.

Shelbourne vs Crystal Palace — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Shelbourne vs Crystal Palace