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Sheikh Russel vs Mohammedan Dhaka — Premier League 2019

Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russel
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
1/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Bashundhara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sheikh Russel37%
×Draw25%
Mohammedan Dhaka37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheikh Russel
1.39
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 77 away

creates per match

Sheikh Russel
1.65
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.57

allows per match

Sheikh Russel
1.19
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.13

finishing

Sheikh Russel+0.00on par
Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheikh Russel ↓

Mohammedan Dhaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sheikh Russel or draw
63%
Sheikh Russel or Mohammedan Dhaka
75%
Draw or Mohammedan Dhaka
63%

Winning margin

Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
17%
Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
75%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
40%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
16%
Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
75%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
40%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
50%
Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheikh Russel at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Mohammedan Dhaka away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheikh Russel attack 1.65 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.57 + Sheikh Russel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sheikh Russel scores more
37%
level
25%
Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
37%

Sheikh Russel at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sheikh Russel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sheikh Russel 2–0 Mohammedan Dhaka

Sheikh Russel beat Mohammedan Dhaka 2-0 in Premier League on January 6, 2023.

The match was played at Bashundhara Sports Complex in Dhaka.