Sheikh Jamal 2–2 NoFeL Sporting Club

Sheikh Jamal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

NoFeL Sporting Club

8/1/2019

Premier League · Round 26Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sheikh Jamal46%

×Draw24%

NoFeL Sporting Club29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheikh JamalExpected goals in this matchNoFeL Sporting Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.24

Sheikh Jamal

1.63

NoFeL Sporting Club

1.24

Sheikh Jamal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 12 away

1.51

creates per match

1.08

1.40

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sheikh Jamal

1.51

NoFeL Sporting Club

1.08

allows per match

Sheikh Jamal

1.40

NoFeL Sporting Club

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheikh Jamal ↓

NoFeL Sporting Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sheikh Jamal or draw

71%

Sheikh Jamal or NoFeL Sporting Club

76%

Draw or NoFeL Sporting Club

54%

Winning margin

Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+

24%

NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals

80%

Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals

48%

Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals

22%

NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals

71%

NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals

35%

NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)

61%

NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheikh Jamal at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

NoFeL Sporting Club away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.51 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 1.08 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sheikh Jamal scores more

46%

level

24%

NoFeL Sporting Club scores more

29%

Sheikh Jamal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sheikh Jamal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff