Sheffield Wednesday 0–0 Swansea: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Swansea

10/22/2024

Championship · Round 11Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday39%

×Draw26%

Swansea35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.31

Sheffield Wednesday

1.39

Swansea

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 54 away

1.28

creates per match

1.09

1.52

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.28

Swansea

1.09

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.52

Swansea

1.50

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.32scores less

Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

65%

Sheffield Wednesday or Swansea

74%

Draw or Swansea

61%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

18%

Swansea wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

75%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

40%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

16%

Swansea 1+ goals

73%

Swansea 2+ goals

38%

Swansea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

52%

Swansea (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.52 · 45 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.50 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.28 + Swansea defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Swansea attack 1.09 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

39%

level

26%

Swansea scores more

35%

Sheffield Wednesday at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Y. Valery

Sheffield Wednesday · D

7.5

Match Events

7'

Ronald

62'

J. Windass← S. Ingelsson

62'

J. Key← K. Naughton

63'

I. Ugbo← J. Lowe

66'

Jay Fulton

74'

J. Allen← J. Fulton

75'

L. Palmer← Pol Valentín

75'

O. Kobacki← D. Gassama

86'

L. Cullen← Ž. Vipotnik

86'

O. Cooper← A. Abdulai

87'

Harry Darling

88'

C. Paterson← S. Charles

90+4'

Myles Peart-Harris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldSwansea

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots9

0.58Expected Goals (xG)0.83

9Corners6

8Fouls5

Shots

8Total Shots9

0On Target1

7Off Target3

1Blocked5

6Inside Box3

2Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

297Total Passes496

211Accurate Passes403

71%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

8Fouls5

0Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1