Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

12/21/2024

Championship · Round 22Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday37%

×Draw26%

Stoke City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

Sheffield Wednesday

1.38

Stoke City

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

1.27

creates per match

1.02

1.74

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.27

Stoke City

1.02

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.74

Stoke City

1.48

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.27scores less

Stoke City-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

63%

Sheffield Wednesday or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

63%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

17%

Stoke City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

75%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

40%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

16%

Stoke City 1+ goals

75%

Stoke City 2+ goals

40%

Stoke City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

50%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.74 · 18 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.27 + Stoke City defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Stoke City attack 1.02 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

37%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

37%

Sheffield Wednesday at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff