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Sheffield Wednesday vs Southampton — Championship 2018

Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Southampton
Southampton
8/4/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday34%
×Draw25%
Southampton41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Wednesday
1.37
Southampton
1.52

Southampton creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday
1.27
Southampton
1.29

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday
1.74
Southampton
1.47

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.27scores less
Southampton+0.06on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw
59%
Sheffield Wednesday or Southampton
75%
Draw or Southampton
66%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+
15%
Southampton wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals
75%
Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals
40%
Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals
16%
Southampton 1+ goals
78%
Southampton 2+ goals
45%
Southampton 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)
46%
Southampton (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.74 · 18 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.27 + Southampton defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Southampton attack 1.29 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more
34%
level
25%
Southampton scores more
41%

Southampton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Southampton

Southampton beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 in Championship on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Hillsborough in Sheffield.